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Note: This was the Matchup Page from week 12 of last year. During the offseason we have refined our algorithms and back tested them against the last 2 years. We are very happy with the results these adjustments produced.  While the presentation may look similar in 2008 the underlying formulas will be slightly adjusted. PossesionPoints is a data analysis company and we reserve the right to alter our formulas when new factors improve results. (As with this year. most of the formula modifications will occur in the offseason when extensive study can be dedicated to the effects of the modifications).

Video info about our 2008 Matchup Page

2007 Week 12 Matchups


Once again, being responsive to subscribers' requests, we now have a look at the following week matchups in our members section. To give you a sample of what you will find in the member area throughout the season, below is the matchup page from Week 12 of 2007. We look at the PossessionPoints Offense, defense and Net stats in 3 ways: the last week's games' differences, the season differences and the 4-week moving average. The numbers in the chart are explained below the chart commentary and our Picks Against the Spread chart.

  Last Week 2007 Season  4 week Avg  
W12 Off
Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Off
Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Off
Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Matchup Edge Combined
Packers 59 55 x 24 30 7 35 25 x Packers
Lions x x 3 x x x x x 10  
Jets x x x x x x x x x  
Cowboys 86 113 27 56 92 35 62 123 61 Cowboys
Colts 38 51 13 73 77 4 16 22 6 Colts
Falcons x x x x x x x x x  
Bills x x x x x x x x x  
Jaguars 73 253 180 27 55 28 8 37 29 Jaguars
Raiders x 3 8 25 24 x x 8 13 Raiders
Chiefs 5 x x x x 0 5 x x  
Saints x x 18 11 2 x 51 47 x Saints
Panthers 65 47 x x x 10 x x 4  
Texans x 56 88 x 29 40 x x 28 Texans
Browns 33 x x 12 x x 55 27 x  
Seahawks 38 x x 8 26 17 9 10 1 Seahawks
Rams x 8 45 x x x x x x  
Vikings x x x x x x x x x  
Giants 8 33 25 47 70 23 32 62 30 Giants
Titans 25 x x x 25 35 x x 8  
Bengals x 12 37 10 x x 19 11 x Bengals
Redskins 17 x x 20 x x 32 x x  
Bucs x 77 94 x 3 23 x 33 66 Bucs
Broncos 12 19 7 25 x x 11 8 x Broncos
Bears x x x x 3 28 x x 3  
49ers x x 5 x x x x x x  
Cardinals 20 15 x 34 45 11 25 53 28 Cardinals
Ravens 60 73 13 x x 15 x x x  
Chargers x x x 18 2 x 18 18 0 Chargers
Eagles x x 45 x x x x x x  
Patriots 137 92 x 92 95 3 78 107 29 Patriots
Dolphins x x x x x x x x x  
Steelers 118 158 40 54 127 72 66 105 39 Steelers

Well, we are back on track. We were 10-6 last week, and that is kind of number we expect. Following the straight up picks that we have done all season, we are showing for the first time picks against the spread that we have been experimenting with for a couple of weeks. Here we go again:

As with last week we think the selections this week look pretty reasonable. This concludes the traditional part of this page and this is where we say  --  Good luck! 

Below is our picks against the spread. We have been experimenting with this for a couple of weeks and so far like the results. This week we are publishing them for all of our subscribers, let us know what you think. If you have any questions on our methodology, feel free to shoot us an e-mail and ask about it:



W12 PossPts
Straightup Pick
PossPts avg Spread ATS PICK
Packers Packers 5.5 -3.5 Packers
Lions        
Jets        
Cowboys Cowboys 21.4 -14 Cowboys
Colts Colts 10.0 -11.5 Falcons
Falcons        
Bills        
Jaguars Jaguars 9.1 -7.5 Jaguars
Raiders Raiders 3.2 5.5 Raiders
Chiefs        
Saints Saints 4.8 -3 Saints
Panthers        
Texans Texans 0.2 3.5 Texans
Browns        
Seahawks Seahawks 3.6 -3 Seahawks
Rams        
Vikings        
Giants Giants 13.2 -7 Giants
Titans        
Bengals Bengals -1.4 0 Titans
Redskins        
Bucs Bucs 3.6 -3 Bucs
Broncos Broncos 0.5 2.5 Broncos
Bears        
49ers        
Cardinals Cardinals 9.8 -10.5 49ers
Ravens        
Chargers Chargers 2.0 -9.5 Ravens
Eagles        
Patriots Patriots 20.1 -22 Eagles
Dolphins        
Steelers Steelers 23.1 -16 Steelers

Reading the Chart: The "Matchup Chart" above at the top of page shows when a team has an edge in a particular category.  The number is the difference of the particular PossessionPoints stat, and appears on the line of the team where the difference is positive. For example, below you can see the PossessionPoints stats for the offensive, net and defensive effects for the Broncos and the Bills. The final matchup chart only shows the highlighted numbers. How we get the numbers in each column: For example: In the week 17 2006 games, the Broncos totaled 96.5 Offensive PossessionPoints, while the Bills scored 39. The chart shows the (rounded) difference of 58 on the Bronco's line since that difference was in their favor. Had the numbers been reversed, it would have shown up on the Bill's line as an edge for them. Likewise with the net, while both teams had a negative PossessionPoints net, the Broncos -33.6 is better than the Bills -40. Since the difference is less than 10 we have highlighted this in yellow so you can readily see differences that are less strong. The defensive matchup is slightly different. Since it is better to allow the opponent fewer PossessionPoints, the team with the smaller number has the matchup edge appear in their row. Since 79 is less than 130, the Bills show with the defensive edge by 51. 

W1 This week offense   This week net   This week def  
Broncos 96.5 58 -33.6333 6 130.1333 x
Bills 39 x -40.05 x 79.05 51

 

Next, we highlight who had the edge based on all the categories, we have stopped showing the season only edge column. We make no adjustment for yellow vs. green so as you can see in the chart below the Eagles had the 3 yellow matchup edges for the 2006 Season; so, their name was listed in the "Matchup Edge 2006 Season Only" column. The Packers had more differences in their favor( 5 edges to the Eagles 4) so their name was listed in the "Matchup Edge Combined" column.

  Week 17 2006 Season 4 wk moving avg    
W1 Off
 Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Off
 Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Off
 Diff
Net
Diff
Def
Diff
Matchup Edge Combined Matchup Edge 2006 Season Only
Eagles x x x 8 9 2 13 x x   Eagles
Packers 30 141 111 x x x x 36 50 Packers  

 

Our members will find all these charts in our members area. Each week these matchups will be be updated, this information will become more and more valuable as the weeks roll on! The numbers don't always tell the whole story.  With the e-newsletter, we delve into the stories behind the numbers.  For example, last season's Packers' victory over the Bears was  more about Chicago putting New Year Celebrations before football play then about the Packers outperforming them.  So, in a situation like this, members might want to look at the Season's Column rather than the combined column to get the most accurate story.  We will point these situations out to our members every week when and if they occur. And you know the NFL; they will occur!

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Members - go to the members area for 2008 Matchup Charts and analysis.