2007 Season Matchups

Note: This was the Matchup Page from week 12 of last year. During the offseason we have refined our algorithms and back tested them against the last 2 years. We are very happy with the results these adjustments produced. While the presentation may look similar in 2008 the underlying formulas will be slightly adjusted. PossesionPoints is a data analysis company and we reserve the right to alter our formulas when new factors improve results. (As with this year. most of the formula modifications will occur in the offseason when extensive study can be dedicated to the effects of the modifications).

Video info about our 2008 Matchup Page

2007 Week 12 Matchups

Once again, being responsive to subscribers' requests, we now have a look at the following week matchups in our members section. To give you a sample of what you will find in the member area throughout the season, below is the matchup page from Week 12 of 2007. We look at the PossessionPoints Offense, defense and Net stats in 3 ways: the last week's games' differences, the season differences and the 4-week moving average. The numbers in the chart are explained below the chart commentary and our Picks Against the Spread chart.

	Last Week			2007 Season			4 week Avg
W12	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Matchup Edge Combined
Packers	59	55	x	24	30	7	35	25	x	Packers
Lions	x	x	3	x	x	x	x	x	10
Jets	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Cowboys	86	113	27	56	92	35	62	123	61	Cowboys
Colts	38	51	13	73	77	4	16	22	6	Colts
Falcons	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Bills	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Jaguars	73	253	180	27	55	28	8	37	29	Jaguars
Raiders	x	3	8	25	24	x	x	8	13	Raiders
Chiefs	5	x	x	x	x	0	5	x	x
Saints	x	x	18	11	2	x	51	47	x	Saints
Panthers	65	47	x	x	x	10	x	x	4
Texans	x	56	88	x	29	40	x	x	28	Texans
Browns	33	x	x	12	x	x	55	27	x
Seahawks	38	x	x	8	26	17	9	10	1	Seahawks
Rams	x	8	45	x	x	x	x	x	x
Vikings	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Giants	8	33	25	47	70	23	32	62	30	Giants
Titans	25	x	x	x	25	35	x	x	8
Bengals	x	12	37	10	x	x	19	11	x	Bengals
Redskins	17	x	x	20	x	x	32	x	x
Bucs	x	77	94	x	3	23	x	33	66	Bucs
Broncos	12	19	7	25	x	x	11	8	x	Broncos
Bears	x	x	x	x	3	28	x	x	3
49ers	x	x	5	x	x	x	x	x	x
Cardinals	20	15	x	34	45	11	25	53	28	Cardinals
Ravens	60	73	13	x	x	15	x	x	x
Chargers	x	x	x	18	2	x	18	18	0	Chargers
Eagles	x	x	45	x	x	x	x	x	x
Patriots	137	92	x	92	95	3	78	107	29	Patriots
Dolphins	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
Steelers	118	158	40	54	127	72	66	105	39	Steelers

Well, we are back on track. We were 10-6 last week, and that is kind of number we expect. Following the straight up picks that we have done all season, we are showing for the first time picks against the spread that we have been experimenting with for a couple of weeks. Here we go again:

Packers - Lions: The Lions are playing at home on Thanksgiving as always. They typically play pretty well in this game, and this year their playoff future may depend on their ability to beat the Packers at least once this season. however,the indicators go with the Packers.
Jets - Cowboys: Can the Jets upset the Cowboys like they did the Steelers last week? The indicators don't think so. We go with the Cowboys.
Colts - Falcons: The Colts are hurting, but the indicators don't know anything about injuries until they start taking a team's performance down. We go with the Colts here.
Bills - Jaguars: The Jaguars chart is starting to look very impressive. The indicators go with the Jags in Jacksonville.
Raiders - Chiefs: The Raiders are the nemesis for our calculations. They perform well, but always lose but our indicators keep going with them. We will have the Raiders yet again.
Saints - Panthers: Like the Raiders, the Saints are tough to figure this year, lose 4, win 4, lose 2. Are they on their way to another 4-game losing streak? We're not sure but we have them again this week.
Texans - Browns: If the Browns play like they have many of their games this year, this one will come down to the end, perhaps overtime. The indicators are going with the Texans in Cleveland.
Seahawks - Rams: Well the Rams are on a 2-game winning streak. It looks like the Seahawks are a little too much here; they seem to be playing very well again. We go for the Seahawks
Vikings - Giants: The Giants haven't been impressive, but they have been winning. The indicators all go the Giants way this week.
Titans - Bengals: Well, we are confused here, so we will go with the Bengals using our traditional matchup method. Howeve,r we have started working on an algorithm to make picks against the point spread. When we look at that algorithm, the Bengals get a negative number which indicates that the Titans really should come out the winner. Last week the one team with a negative number did lose, so that was one of our 6 wrong. As strange as it looks, our chart below has the Titans as the pick against the spread which is 0 as of now with the Bengals.
Redskins - Bucs: The Redskins have been playing competitive games but have been coming up short. The indicators point to Jeff Garcia and the Bucs in Tampa.
Broncos - Bears: The Broncos are back in the playoff picture; the Bears are still a long shot. The indicators go to the Broncos in Chicago.
Ravens - Chargers: The Chargers get the nod in a close matchup against the Ravens.
49ers - Cardinals: Believe it or not by our projections the Cardinals may be a playoff team this year. The indicators go with the Cardinals in Arizona.
Eagles - Patriots: The only question is by how many points the Patriots are going to win by. The point spread says 22, which our numbers think are a couple of points too high. We go with the Patriots straight up and the Eagles against the spread. (see chart below)
Dolphins - Steelers: The Steelers had a big letdown last week, but we think they might take it out on the unfortunate Dolphins. We don't think the Dolphins will go winless but we don't think the win will be in Pittsburgh this week.

As with last week we think the selections this week look pretty reasonable. This concludes the traditional part of this page and this is where we say -- Good luck!

Below is our picks against the spread. We have been experimenting with this for a couple of weeks and so far like the results. This week we are publishing them for all of our subscribers, let us know what you think. If you have any questions on our methodology, feel free to shoot us an e-mail and ask about it:

W12	PossPts Straightup Pick	PossPts avg	Spread	ATS PICK
Packers	Packers	5.5	-3.5	Packers
Lions
Jets
Cowboys	Cowboys	21.4	-14	Cowboys
Colts	Colts	10.0	-11.5	Falcons
Falcons
Bills
Jaguars	Jaguars	9.1	-7.5	Jaguars
Raiders	Raiders	3.2	5.5	Raiders
Chiefs
Saints	Saints	4.8	-3	Saints
Panthers
Texans	Texans	0.2	3.5	Texans
Browns
Seahawks	Seahawks	3.6	-3	Seahawks
Rams
Vikings
Giants	Giants	13.2	-7	Giants
Titans
Bengals	Bengals	-1.4	0	Titans
Redskins
Bucs	Bucs	3.6	-3	Bucs
Broncos	Broncos	0.5	2.5	Broncos
Bears
49ers
Cardinals	Cardinals	9.8	-10.5	49ers
Ravens
Chargers	Chargers	2.0	-9.5	Ravens
Eagles
Patriots	Patriots	20.1	-22	Eagles
Dolphins
Steelers	Steelers	23.1	-16	Steelers

Reading the Chart: The "Matchup Chart" above at the top of page shows when a team has an edge in a particular category. The number is the difference of the particular PossessionPoints stat, and appears on the line of the team where the difference is positive. For example, below you can see the PossessionPoints stats for the offensive, net and defensive effects for the Broncos and the Bills. The final matchup chart only shows the highlighted numbers. How we get the numbers in each column: For example: In the week 17 2006 games, the Broncos totaled 96.5 Offensive PossessionPoints, while the Bills scored 39. The chart shows the (rounded) difference of 58 on the Bronco's line since that difference was in their favor. Had the numbers been reversed, it would have shown up on the Bill's line as an edge for them. Likewise with the net, while both teams had a negative PossessionPoints net, the Broncos -33.6 is better than the Bills -40. Since the difference is less than 10 we have highlighted this in yellow so you can readily see differences that are less strong. The defensive matchup is slightly different. Since it is better to allow the opponent fewer PossessionPoints, the team with the smaller number has the matchup edge appear in their row. Since 79 is less than 130, the Bills show with the defensive edge by 51.

W1	This week offense		This week net		This week def
Broncos	96.5	58	-33.6333	6	130.1333	x
Bills	39	x	-40.05	x	79.05	51

Next, we highlight who had the edge based on all the categories, we have stopped showing the season only edge column. We make no adjustment for yellow vs. green so as you can see in the chart below the Eagles had the 3 yellow matchup edges for the 2006 Season; so, their name was listed in the "Matchup Edge 2006 Season Only" column. The Packers had more differences in their favor( 5 edges to the Eagles 4) so their name was listed in the "Matchup Edge Combined" column.

	Week 17			2006 Season			4 wk moving avg
W1	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Off Diff	Net Diff	Def Diff	Matchup Edge Combined	Matchup Edge 2006 Season Only
Eagles	x	x	x	8	9	2	13	x	x		Eagles
Packers	30	141	111	x	x	x	x	36	50	Packers

Our members will find all these charts in our members area. Each week these matchups will be be updated, this information will become more and more valuable as the weeks roll on! The numbers don't always tell the whole story. With the e-newsletter, we delve into the stories behind the numbers. For example, last season's Packers' victory over the Bears was more about Chicago putting New Year Celebrations before football play then about the Packers outperforming them. So, in a situation like this, members might want to look at the Season's Column rather than the combined column to get the most accurate story. We will point these situations out to our members every week when and if they occur. And you know the NFL; they will occur!

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Members - go to the members area for 2008 Matchup Charts and analysis.