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2009 - Schedule Analysis

The tables below quantify teams schedules based on last seasons RPM. For more on the RPM see the "Relative Performance Measure" page. 

The first 2 charts will be updated throughout the 2009 season. The first chart was first seen with the BleacherReport article "NFL 2009 Win – Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse " (the week 5 version of the chart below is still in the article, these charts have now been updated). By special request we have started to look at prior season data, 2008's season ending chart posted at the end of this page. (as more past data is analyzed we will probably add dedicated pages)

Charts associated with the article: AFC North – Toughest Division In The NFL?  further down this page

Charts associated with the article: NFL Doormats: Are the Losing Teams Really That Bad? further down this page

Charts associated with the article: 2009 NFL Schedule: Carolina Panthers Difficult, Arizona Cardinals Easy even further down the page.

2009 Past Schedule sorted by "Opponents Winning Percentage" Updated following Week 17 Games 1/4.

 

  Team Record Past Opp Record Past Opp Win pct
1 Dolphins 7 - 9 143 - 113 0.559
2 Bucs 3 - 13 142 - 114 0.555
3 Panthers 8 - 8 138 - 118 0.539
4 Titans 8 - 8 138 - 118 0.539
5 Giants 8 - 8 137 - 119 0.535
6 Broncos 8 - 8 135 - 121 0.527
7 Raiders 5 - 11 135 - 121 0.527
8 Lions 2 - 14 134 - 122 0.523
9 Ravens 9 - 7 134 - 122 0.523
10 Rams 1 - 15 133 - 123 0.520
11 Bills 6 - 10 132 - 124 0.516
12 Chiefs 4 - 12 132 - 124 0.516
13 Jets 9 - 7 132 - 124 0.516
14 Patriots 10 - 6 132 - 124 0.516
15 Browns 5 - 11 131 - 125 0.512
16 Falcons 9 - 7 129 - 127 0.504
17 Texans 9 - 7 129 - 127 0.504
18 Bears 7 - 9 127 - 129 0.496
19 Jaguars 7 - 9 127 - 129 0.496
20 Bengals 10 - 6 126 - 130 0.492
21 Redskins 4 - 12 126 - 130 0.492
22 Cowboys 11 - 5 125 - 131 0.488
23 Steelers 9 - 7 125 - 131 0.488
24 Eagles 11 - 5 124 - 132 0.484
25 Seahawks 5 - 11 122 - 134 0.477
26 49ers 8 - 8 122 - 134 0.477
27 Colts 14 - 2 121 - 135 0.473
28 Chargers 13 - 3 116 - 140 0.453
29 Cardinals 10 - 6 114 - 142 0.445
30 Packers 11 - 5 113 - 143 0.441
31 Vikings 12 - 4 113 - 143 0.441
32 Saints 13 - 3 109 - 147 0.426
 

For the regular season there were 5 teams with records over .500 that have played teams with combined records above .500 (highlighted in green).  There are 4 teams with records under .500 that have played teams with combined records of under .500. We have also highlighted in blue the 2009 Playoff teams. Very interesting.

 

2009 Past Schedule sorted by "Opponents RPM" Updated following Week 17 Games 1/4.

-- This chart was not included in the BleacherReport article because it requires familiarity with our Relative Performance Measure. You can find our weekly RPM charts on our "PossessionPoints Performance Rankingspage. We explain the RPM in more detail in our BR article: "NFL Week Two Performance Rankings"

  Team Record Past Opp Record Past Opp RPM
 
1 Bucs 3 - 13 142 - 114 210.945
2 Panthers 8 - 8 138 - 118 173.575
3 Dolphins 7 - 9 143 - 113 135.579
4 Lions 2 - 14 134 - 122 133.109
5 Bills 6 - 10 132 - 124 125.835
6 Jets 9 - 7 132 - 124 87.883
7 Titans 8 - 8 138 - 118 71.867
8 Falcons 9 - 7 129 - 127 68.259
9 Bears 7 - 9 127 - 129 63.778
10 Ravens 9 - 7 134 - 122 59.182
11 Patriots 10 - 6 132 - 124 50.088
12 Giants 8 - 8 137 - 119 48.425
13 Browns 5 - 11 131 - 125 27.691
14 Rams 1 - 15 133 - 123 26.553
15 Raiders 5 - 11 135 - 121 24.396
16 Bengals 10 - 6 126 - 130 3.796
17 Broncos 8 - 8 135 - 121 -14.297
18 Eagles 11 - 5 124 - 132 -25.630
19 Steelers 9 - 7 125 - 131 -35.667
20 Chiefs 4 - 12 132 - 124 -52.622
21 Colts 14 - 2 121 - 135 -56.185
22 Cowboys 11 - 5 125 - 131 -62.107
23 Jaguars 7 - 9 127 - 129 -62.117
24 Texans 9 - 7 129 - 127 -77.288
25 Saints 13 - 3 109 - 147 -85.786
26 Seahawks 5 - 11 122 - 134 -90.768
27 Packers 11 - 5 113 - 143 -96.857
28 Redskins 4 - 12 126 - 130 -112.664
29 Vikings 12 - 4 113 - 143 -124.673
30 Chargers 13 - 3 116 - 140 -132.992
31 Cardinals 10 - 6 114 - 142 -136.115
32 49ers 8 - 8 122 - 134 -145.195
   

2008 Past Schedule sorted by "Opponents winning Percentage" - regular season end.

-- Past data was requested by a reader of the BR article, we will work on more but the end of 2008 was readily available. Note, 5 teams were above .500 and played competition with combined records above .500. The Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Vikings and Giants. (The Steelers, Ravens and Eagles were in the conference championship games and the Steelers won the Super Bowl). There were only 3 teams with records below .500 that played competition with combined records below .500. (The Seahawks, Bills and 49ers) (Note: the tie between the Bengals and Eagles was left out of the chart for simplicity since it wouldn't change any of the percentages)

  Team Record Past Opp Record Future Opp Rec Past Opp Win pct Fut Opp Win pct 
1 Browns 4 - 12 145 - 108 0 - 0 0.573 0.000
2 Lions 0 - 16 143 - 113 0 - 0 0.559 0.000
3 Bengals 4 - 11 141 - 114 0 - 0 0.553 0.000
4 Chiefs 2 - 14 137 - 118 0 - 0 0.537 0.000
5 Jaguars 5 - 11 137 - 118 0 - 0 0.537 0.000
6 Rams 2 - 14 136 - 119 0 - 0 0.533 0.000
7 Steelers 12 - 4 133 - 120 0 - 0 0.526 0.000
8 Ravens 11 - 5 132 - 121 0 - 0 0.522 0.000
9 Raiders 5 - 11 133 - 123 0 - 0 0.520 0.000
10 Texans 8 - 8 132 - 123 0 - 0 0.518 0.000
11 Chargers 8 - 8 132 - 124 0 - 0 0.516 0.000
12 Eagles 9 - 6 131 - 124 0 - 0 0.514 0.000
13 Packers 6 - 10 129 - 127 0 - 0 0.504 0.000
14 Vikings 10 - 6 129 - 127 0 - 0 0.504 0.000
15 Giants 12 - 4 127 - 126 0 - 0 0.502 0.000
16 Colts 12 - 4 127 - 128 0 - 0 0.498 0.000
17 Seahawks 4 - 12 127 - 128 0 - 0 0.498 0.000
18 Cowboys 9 - 7 126 - 127 0 - 0 0.498 0.000
19 Saints 8 - 8 127 - 129 0 - 0 0.496 0.000
20 Panthers 12 - 4 125 - 131 0 - 0 0.488 0.000
21 Cardinals 9 - 7 124 - 131 0 - 0 0.486 0.000
22 Bucs 9 - 7 123 - 133 0 - 0 0.480 0.000
23 Patriots 11 - 5 123 - 133 0 - 0 0.480 0.000
24 Redskins 8 - 8 121 - 132 0 - 0 0.478 0.000
25 Bears 9 - 7 121 - 134 0 - 0 0.475 0.000
26 Jets 9 - 7 120 - 135 0 - 0 0.471 0.000
27 Dolphins 11 - 5 118 - 138 0 - 0 0.461 0.000
28 Falcons 11 - 5 117 - 138 0 - 0 0.459 0.000
29 Titans 13 - 3 117 - 138 0 - 0 0.459 0.000
30 Broncos 8 - 8 117 - 139 0 - 0 0.457 0.000
31 Bills 7 - 9 116 - 140 0 - 0 0.453 0.000
32 49ers 7 - 9 114 - 141 0 - 0 0.447 0.000

 


  Updated after Week 17
Strength of Schedule comparison of all NFL Teams based on their 2009 records
 

The table above is a new table, it shows what a teams Strength of Schedule rank would be based on how their opposition has done to date this year. Most sites do a SOS based on last year's results and leave it at that.

The table highlights teams in red that have moved up the SOS chart by 5 or more and green for those that have moved down by 5 or more.


The following charts were associated with the article:
AFC North – Toughest Division In The NFL?  (updated after Week 17 article had week 9 charts, it is interesting to note how the picture has changed in the 6 weeks since that article as the Steelers season has gone massively downhill)

Division Wins Losses Pct
AFC South 38 26 0.594
NFC East 34 30 0.531
NFC South 33 31 0.516
AFC North 33 31 0.516
AFC East 32 32 0.500
NFC North 32 32 0.500
AFC West 30 34 0.469
NFC West 24 40 0.375
Division Quality Wins Bad Losses QW Pct
NFC East 15 3 0.833
AFC South 20 7 0.741
NFC South 17 6 0.739
AFC North 15 7 0.682
NFC North 12 6 0.667
AFC East 18 9 0.667
AFC West 17 10 0.630
NFC West 6 8 0.429
Browns
Opponent W-L Pct Result QW/BL
Vikings 12 - 4 0.75 L  
Broncos 8 - 8 0.5 L  
Ravens 9 - 7 0.563 L  
Bengals 10 - 6 0.625 L  
Bills 6 - 10 0.375 W  
Steelers 9 - 7 0.563 L  
Packers 11 - 5 0.688 L  
Bears 7 - 9 0.438 L BL
         
Ravens 9 - 7 0.563 L  
Lions 2 - 14 0.125 L BL
Bengals 10 - 6 0.625 L  
Chargers 13 - 3 0.813 L  
Steelers 9 - 7 0.563 W QW
Chiefs 4 - 12 0.25 W  
Raiders 5 - 11 0.313 W  
Jaguars 7 - 9 0.438 W  

Division RPM
AFC East 56.2
AFC North 30.7
NFC South 23.7
NFC East 14.4
AFC South 1.4
NFC North 22.3
NFC West -79.7
AFC West -68.9

 

The Brows chart shows the fluid nature of these charts, the Bears loss now qualifies as a bad loss as they have now slipped below .500.



The following charts were associated with the article:

2009 NFL Doormats: Are the Losing Teams Really That Bad?

2009 Quality Win / Bad Loss table (Week 9)

Under .500 0.500 Over .500
Team QW BL Team QW BL Team QW BL
Dolphins 2 0 Ravens 2 0 Bengals 5 0
Titans 1 0 Jets 2 3 Broncos 4 0
Raiders 1 0 Bears 1 0 Saints 4 0
Panthers 1 1 Packers 1 1 Cardinals 4 2
49ers 1 1 Jaguars 1 2 Steelers 3 0
Seahawks 1 1       Colts 3 0
Bills 1 2       Vikings 3 0
Bucs 1 3       Cowboys 2 0
Browns 0 0       Patriots 2 0
Chiefs 0 1       Giants 1 0
Lions 0 2       Falcons 1 0
Redskins 0 3       Chargers 1 0
Rams 0 3       Texans 1 0
            Eagles 1 1

 

Division Breakdown of QW/BL Week 9

Quality Wins / Bad Losses
NFC East
Team QW BL
Cowboys 2 0
Giants 1 0
Eagles 1 1
Redskins 0 3
     
NFC North
Team QW BL
Vikings 3 0
Bears 1 0
Packers 1 1
Lions 0 2
     
NFC South
Team QW BL
Saints 4 0
Falcons 1 0
Panthers 1 1
Bucs 1 3
     
NFC West
Team QW BL
Cardinals 4 2
49ers 1 1
Seahawks 1 1
Rams 0 3
Quality Wins / Bad Losses
AFC East
Team QW BL
Patriots 2 0
Dolphins 2 0
Jets 2 3
Bills 1 2
     
AFC North
Team QW BL
Bengals 5 0
Steelers 3 0
Ravens 2 0
Browns 0 0
     
AFC South
Team QW BL
Colts 3 0
Texans 1 0
Titans 1 0
Jaguars 1 2
     
AFC West
Team QW BL
Broncos 4 0
Raiders 1 0
Chargers 1 0
Chiefs 0 1
 

2008 Quality Win / Bad Loss Table (Final after week 17)

Under .500 0.500 Over .500
Team QW BL Team QW BL Team QW BL
Raiders 4 2 Redskins 5 3 Panthers 8 0
Packers 3 1 Broncos 5 4 Giants 8 1
Jaguars 3 3 Chargers 4 1 Colts 8 2
49ers 2 1 Saints 3 0 Steelers 7 0
Bills 2 2 Texans 3 2 Falcons 6 0
Rams 2 5       Titans 6 0
Bengals 1 1       Vikings 6 1
Browns 1 1       Eagles 5 0
Chiefs 1 3       Ravens 5 0
Seahawks 1 3       Bucs 5 1
Lions 0 4       Dolphins 4 0
            Patriots 4 0
            Bears 4 1
            Cowboys 4 1
            Jets 4 3
            Cardinals 2 0

2008 Quality Wins / Bad Losses by Division

Quality Wins / Bad Losses
NFC East
Team QW BL
Giants 8 1
Eagles 5 0
Redskins 5 3
Cowboys 4 1
   
NFC North
Team QW BL
Vikings 6 1
Bears 4 1
Packers 3 1
Lions 0 4
   
NFC South
Team QW BL
Panthers 8 0
Falcons 6 0
Bucs 5 1
Saints 3 0
   
NFC West
Team QW BL
Cardinals 2 0
49ers 2 1
Rams 2 5
Seahawks 1 3
Quality Wins / Bad Losses
AFC East
Team QW BL
Dolphins 4 0
Patriots 4 0
Jets 4 3
Bills 2 2
   
AFC North
Team QW BL
Steelers 7 0
Ravens 5 0
Bengals 1 1
Browns 1 1
   
AFC South
Team QW BL
Colts 8 2
Titans 6 0
Texans 3 2
Jaguars 3 3
   
AFC West
Team QW BL
Broncos 5 4
Chargers 4 1
Raiders 4 2
Chiefs 1 3

The following charts were associated with an article written in the offseason before the 2009 season. They looked at teams 2009 season based on their oppositions 2008 RPM. These charts were shown in the BleacherReport article: "2009 NFL Schedule: Carolina Panthers Difficult, Arizona Cardinals Easy"




2009 Schedule Difficulty - sorted by overall 2008 RPM

  Team Opponent RPM Home RPM Road RPM
1 Panthers 227.8 87.2 140.7
2 Dolphins 169.6 97.1 72.5
3 Bucs 127.0 140.2 -13.2
4 Bills 103.5 65.6 37.9
5 Falcons 93.6 2.6 91.0
6 Patriots 83.8 62.7 21.2
7 Giants 67.5 33.5 34.0
8 Raiders 49.9 6.0 43.9
9 Cowboys 42.4 -3.6 46.0
10 Bengals 37.2 -76.4 113.6
11 Saints 28.1 46.0 -18.0
12 Colts 16.5 -3.6 20.1
13 Titans 13.6 -14.4 28.0
14 Jets 7.9 -1.4 9.3
15 Redskins -0.1 -5.1 5.0
16 Lions -10.0 8.1 -18.2
17 Broncos -11.0 35.5 -46.5
18 Chiefs -15.7 6.9 -22.5
19 Eagles -18.0 -16.7 -1.3
20 Bears -39.2 14.4 -53.6
21 Browns -57.6 70.5 -128.0
22 Jaguars -69.1 -57.3 -11.9
23 Seahawks -87.6 -119.6 32.0
24 Chargers -93.1 -69.1 -24.0
25 Rams -106.3 30.3 -136.6
26 49ers -124.8 -144.9 20.1
27 Ravens -128.1 -177.7 49.5
28 Steelers -128.9 30.7 -159.6
29 Texans -133.7 -52.6 -81.1
30 Packers -170.2 -105.9 -64.3
31 Vikings -184.0 -93.9 -90.1
32 Cardinals -199.7 -49.4 -150.3

Note: By this measure the Panthers have the most difficult, Cardinals the easiest schedules

2009 Schedule Difficulty - sorted by Road Opponent 2008 RPM

  Team Opponent RPM Home RPM Road RPM
1 Panthers 227.8 87.2 140.7
2 Bengals 37.2 -76.4 113.6
3 Falcons 93.6 2.6 91.0
4 Dolphins 169.6 97.1 72.5
5 Ravens -128.1 -177.7 49.5
6 Cowboys 42.4 -3.6 46.0
7 Raiders 49.9 6.0 43.9
8 Bills 103.5 65.6 37.9
9 Giants 67.5 33.5 34.0
10 Seahawks -87.6 -119.6 32.0
11 Titans 13.6 -14.4 28.0
12 Patriots 83.8 62.7 21.2
13 49ers -124.8 -144.9 20.1
14 Colts 16.5 -3.6 20.1
15 Jets 7.9 -1.4 9.3
16 Redskins -0.1 -5.1 5.0
17 Eagles -18.0 -16.7 -1.3
18 Jaguars -69.1 -57.3 -11.9
19 Bucs 127.0 140.2 -13.2
20 Saints 28.1 46.0 -18.0
21 Lions -10.0 8.1 -18.2
22 Chiefs -15.7 6.9 -22.5
23 Chargers -93.1 -69.1 -24.0
24 Broncos -11.0 35.5 -46.5
25 Bears -39.2 14.4 -53.6
26 Packers -170.2 -105.9 -64.3
27 Texans -133.7 -52.6 -81.1
28 Vikings -184.0 -93.9 -90.1
29 Browns -57.6 70.5 -128.0
30 Rams -106.3 30.3 -136.6
31 Cardinals -199.7 -49.4 -150.3
32 Steelers -128.9 30.7 -159.6

 

2009 Schedule Difficulty - sorted by Home Opponent 2008 RPM

  Team Opponent RPM Home RPM Road RPM
1 Bucs 127.0 140.2 -13.2
2 Dolphins 169.6 97.1 72.5
3 Panthers 227.8 87.2 140.7
4 Browns -57.6 70.5 -128.0
5 Bills 103.5 65.6 37.9
6 Patriots 83.8 62.7 21.2
7 Saints 28.1 46.0 -18.0
8 Broncos -11.0 35.5 -46.5
9 Giants 67.5 33.5 34.0
10 Steelers -128.9 30.7 -159.6
11 Rams -106.3 30.3 -136.6
12 Bears -39.2 14.4 -53.6
13 Lions -10.0 8.1 -18.2
14 Chiefs -15.7 6.9 -22.5
15 Raiders 49.9 6.0 43.9
16 Falcons 93.6 2.6 91.0
17 Jets 7.9 -1.4 9.3
18 Cowboys 42.4 -3.6 46.0
19 Colts 16.5 -3.6 20.1
20 Redskins -0.1 -5.1 5.0
21 Titans 13.6 -14.4 28.0
22 Eagles -18.0 -16.7 -1.3
23 Cardinals -199.7 -49.4 -150.3
24 Texans -133.7 -52.6 -81.1
25 Jaguars -69.1 -57.3 -11.9
26 Chargers -93.1 -69.1 -24.0
27 Bengals 37.2 -76.4 113.6
28 Vikings -184.0 -93.9 -90.1
29 Packers -170.2 -105.9 -64.3
30 Seahawks -87.6 -119.6 32.0
31 49ers -124.8 -144.9 20.1
32 Ravens -128.1 -177.7 49.5