Power Ranking Analysis
We would like to
state right off the bat that a team’s talent is just one of the factors
that determines a team’s win-loss record and a possible playoff berth.
We wrote an
article, where we highlighted four factors
that contribute to a team’s final win-loss record. Those factors are
randomness, schedule, home field advantage and team quality (traditional
Power Ranking if you will). This page serves as background information
for the article linked above.
Randomness:
In the article we stated: "We know that over the
course of a season, a team’s final win-loss record is more than random
luck. Much of a team’s success does depend on talent. However, imagine
if you will, a scenario where all 32 teams are completely equal in the
talent department and there is no such thing as a home field advantage.
If these conditions existed, what kind of records do you think
you would see?" Below are 5 sample outcomes we did see with our
spreadsheet experiment.
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
1 |
Bengals |
12 |
4 |
|
1 |
Jets |
16 |
0 |
|
1 |
Rams |
14 |
2 |
|
2 |
Bears |
12 |
4 |
|
2 |
Chargers |
13 |
3 |
|
2 |
Ravens |
13 |
3 |
|
3 |
Seahawks |
11 |
5 |
|
3 |
Broncos |
12 |
4 |
|
3 |
Steelers |
12 |
4 |
|
4 |
Jaguars |
11 |
5 |
|
4 |
Cowboys |
11 |
5 |
|
4 |
Bills |
11 |
5 |
|
5 |
Giants |
11 |
5 |
|
5 |
Steelers |
11 |
5 |
|
5 |
Browns |
10 |
6 |
|
6 |
Raiders |
10 |
6 |
|
6 |
49ers |
11 |
5 |
|
6 |
Dolphins |
10 |
6 |
|
7 |
Chiefs |
10 |
6 |
|
7 |
Seahawks |
10 |
6 |
|
7 |
Bears |
9 |
7 |
|
8 |
Ravens |
9 |
7 |
|
8 |
Ravens |
9 |
7 |
|
8 |
Chargers |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Saints |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Titans |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Panthers |
8 |
8 |
|
10 |
Vikings |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Chiefs |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Seahawks |
8 |
8 |
|
11 |
Patriots |
9 |
7 |
|
11 |
Colts |
9 |
7 |
|
11 |
49ers |
8 |
8 |
|
12 |
Bills |
9 |
7 |
|
12 |
Saints |
8 |
8 |
|
12 |
Saints |
8 |
8 |
|
13 |
Bucs |
9 |
7 |
|
13 |
Packers |
8 |
8 |
|
13 |
Colts |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Titans |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Texans |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Jaguars |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Dolphins |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Giants |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Packers |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Panthers |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Rams |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Broncos |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Browns |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Vikings |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Cardinals |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Cardinals |
8 |
8 |
|
19 |
Steelers |
7 |
9 |
|
19 |
Panthers |
7 |
9 |
|
19 |
Falcons |
8 |
8 |
|
20 |
Packers |
7 |
9 |
|
20 |
Bucs |
7 |
9 |
|
20 |
Bucs |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Eagles |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Bengals |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Lions |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Rams |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Eagles |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Giants |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Chargers |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Bears |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Redskins |
7 |
9 |
|
24 |
Lions |
7 |
9 |
|
24 |
Bills |
6 |
10 |
|
24 |
Chiefs |
7 |
9 |
|
25 |
Colts |
6 |
10 |
|
25 |
Patriots |
6 |
10 |
|
25 |
Texans |
7 |
9 |
|
26 |
Texans |
6 |
10 |
|
26 |
Lions |
6 |
10 |
|
26 |
Titans |
7 |
9 |
|
27 |
Redskins |
6 |
10 |
|
27 |
Raiders |
6 |
10 |
|
27 |
Eagles |
6 |
10 |
|
28 |
49ers |
6 |
10 |
|
28 |
Jaguars |
5 |
11 |
|
28 |
Patriots |
6 |
10 |
|
29 |
Falcons |
5 |
11 |
|
29 |
Redskins |
5 |
11 |
|
29 |
Jets |
6 |
10 |
|
30 |
Cardinals |
5 |
11 |
|
30 |
Browns |
4 |
12 |
|
30 |
Bengals |
6 |
10 |
|
31 |
Broncos |
5 |
11 |
|
31 |
Falcons |
4 |
12 |
|
31 |
Raiders |
4 |
12 |
|
32 |
Jets |
4 |
12 |
|
32 |
Dolphins |
3 |
13 |
|
32 |
Vikings |
3 |
13 |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
1 |
Falcons |
13 |
3 |
|
1 |
Browns |
15 |
1 |
|
2 |
Packers |
11 |
5 |
|
2 |
Chiefs |
13 |
3 |
|
3 |
Panthers |
10 |
6 |
|
3 |
Saints |
11 |
5 |
|
4 |
Lions |
10 |
6 |
|
4 |
Bengals |
10 |
6 |
|
5 |
Cardinals |
10 |
6 |
|
5 |
Falcons |
9 |
7 |
|
6 |
Broncos |
10 |
6 |
|
6 |
Dolphins |
9 |
7 |
|
7 |
Texans |
9 |
7 |
|
7 |
Lions |
9 |
7 |
|
8 |
Patriots |
9 |
7 |
|
8 |
Panthers |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Bucs |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Vikings |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Jets |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Texans |
9 |
7 |
|
11 |
Bears |
9 |
7 |
|
11 |
Titans |
9 |
7 |
|
12 |
Colts |
9 |
7 |
|
12 |
49ers |
9 |
7 |
|
13 |
Chargers |
9 |
7 |
|
13 |
Colts |
9 |
7 |
|
14 |
Chiefs |
9 |
7 |
|
14 |
Chargers |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Seahawks |
9 |
7 |
|
15 |
Jaguars |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Jaguars |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Eagles |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Rams |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Bills |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Raiders |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
|
19 |
Saints |
8 |
8 |
|
19 |
Broncos |
8 |
8 |
|
20 |
Titans |
8 |
8 |
|
20 |
Giants |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Ravens |
8 |
8 |
|
21 |
Redskins |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Bills |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Bucs |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Cowboys |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Ravens |
7 |
9 |
|
24 |
Bengals |
7 |
9 |
|
24 |
Bears |
7 |
9 |
|
25 |
Dolphins |
7 |
9 |
|
25 |
Patriots |
7 |
9 |
|
26 |
49ers |
6 |
10 |
|
26 |
Rams |
6 |
10 |
|
27 |
Redskins |
6 |
10 |
|
27 |
Raiders |
6 |
10 |
|
28 |
Steelers |
6 |
10 |
|
28 |
Cardinals |
6 |
10 |
|
29 |
Browns |
6 |
10 |
|
29 |
Seahawks |
6 |
10 |
|
30 |
Eagles |
5 |
11 |
|
30 |
Packers |
5 |
11 |
|
31 |
Giants |
4 |
12 |
|
31 |
Steelers |
4 |
12 |
|
32 |
Vikings |
2 |
14 |
|
32 |
Jets |
3 |
13 |
To refresh your memories compare those to actual
records for 2006-2008?
|
2006 Actual |
|
2007 Actual |
|
2008 Actual |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Pos |
Team |
W |
L |
T |
|
1 |
Chargers |
14 |
2 |
|
1 |
Patriots |
16 |
0 |
|
1 |
Titans |
13 |
3 |
0 |
|
2 |
Ravens |
13 |
3 |
|
2 |
Packers |
13 |
3 |
|
2 |
Giants |
12 |
4 |
0 |
|
3 |
Bears |
13 |
3 |
|
3 |
Colts |
13 |
3 |
|
3 |
Steelers |
12 |
4 |
0 |
|
4 |
Patriots |
12 |
4 |
|
4 |
Cowboys |
13 |
3 |
|
4 |
Panthers |
12 |
4 |
0 |
|
5 |
Colts |
12 |
4 |
|
5 |
Jaguars |
11 |
5 |
|
5 |
Colts |
12 |
4 |
0 |
|
6 |
Saints |
10 |
6 |
|
6 |
Chargers |
11 |
5 |
|
6 |
Ravens |
11 |
5 |
0 |
|
7 |
Jets |
10 |
6 |
|
7 |
Steelers |
10 |
6 |
|
7 |
Patriots |
11 |
5 |
0 |
|
8 |
Eagles |
10 |
6 |
|
8 |
Giants |
10 |
6 |
|
8 |
Dolphins |
11 |
5 |
0 |
|
9 |
Broncos |
9 |
7 |
|
9 |
Browns |
10 |
6 |
|
9 |
Falcons |
11 |
5 |
0 |
|
10 |
Cowboys |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Seahawks |
10 |
6 |
|
10 |
Vikings |
10 |
6 |
0 |
|
11 |
Seahawks |
9 |
7 |
|
11 |
Titans |
10 |
6 |
|
11 |
Eagles |
9 |
6 |
1 |
|
12 |
Chiefs |
9 |
7 |
|
12 |
Redskins |
9 |
7 |
|
12 |
Jets |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
13 |
Jaguars |
8 |
8 |
|
13 |
Bucs |
9 |
7 |
|
13 |
Cowboys |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
14 |
Steelers |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Eagles |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Cardinals |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
15 |
Panthers |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Cardinals |
8 |
8 |
|
15 |
Bucs |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
16 |
Packers |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Vikings |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Bears |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
17 |
Bengals |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Texans |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Chargers |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
18 |
Giants |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Saints |
7 |
9 |
|
18 |
Texans |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
19 |
Rams |
8 |
8 |
|
19 |
Bengals |
7 |
9 |
|
19 |
Saints |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
20 |
Titans |
8 |
8 |
|
20 |
Bills |
7 |
9 |
|
20 |
Redskins |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
21 |
Bills |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Bears |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Broncos |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
22 |
Falcons |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
Panthers |
7 |
9 |
|
22 |
49ers |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
23 |
49ers |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Broncos |
7 |
9 |
|
23 |
Bills |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
24 |
Dolphins |
6 |
10 |
|
24 |
Lions |
7 |
9 |
|
24 |
Packers |
6 |
10 |
0 |
|
25 |
Vikings |
6 |
10 |
|
25 |
Ravens |
5 |
11 |
|
25 |
Jaguars |
5 |
11 |
0 |
|
26 |
Texans |
6 |
10 |
|
26 |
49ers |
5 |
11 |
|
26 |
Raiders |
5 |
11 |
0 |
|
27 |
Redskins |
5 |
11 |
|
27 |
Raiders |
4 |
12 |
|
27 |
Browns |
4 |
12 |
0 |
|
28 |
Cardinals |
5 |
11 |
|
28 |
Chiefs |
4 |
12 |
|
28 |
Bengals |
4 |
11 |
1 |
|
29 |
Bucs |
4 |
12 |
|
29 |
Jets |
4 |
12 |
|
29 |
Seahawks |
4 |
12 |
0 |
|
30 |
Browns |
4 |
12 |
|
30 |
Falcons |
4 |
12 |
|
30 |
Chiefs |
2 |
14 |
0 |
|
31 |
Lions |
3 |
13 |
|
31 |
Rams |
3 |
13 |
|
31 |
Rams |
2 |
14 |
0 |
|
32 |
Raiders |
2 |
14 |
|
32 |
Dolphins |
1 |
15 |
|
32 |
Lions |
0 |
16 |
0 |
Not all that different, huh? Especially if you look
at the Ravens who go from number two down to 25 then back up to number
six
when you sort just by records.
Schedule:
We looked at two sets of rankings
(only focused on one in the article). Below is how the Wins and losses would
work if we played these rankings against this year’s schedule
neglecting home field advantage or any randomness. In this scenario, if a team plays a higher-ranked team, the
lower-ranked team gets the loss while the higher-ranked wins.
|
Power Rankings - A |
|
Power Rankings - B |
|
Rnk |
Team |
W |
L |
|
Rnk |
Team |
W |
L |
|
1 |
Patriots |
16 |
0 |
|
1 |
Patriots |
16 |
0 |
|
2 |
Steelers |
16 |
0 |
|
2 |
Steelers |
16 |
0 |
|
3 |
Giants |
16 |
0 |
|
3 |
Colts |
15 |
1 |
|
4 |
Panthers |
14 |
2 |
|
4 |
Cardinals |
15 |
1 |
|
5 |
Colts |
15 |
1 |
|
5 |
Eagles |
16 |
0 |
|
6 |
Falcons |
12 |
4 |
|
6 |
Giants |
13 |
3 |
|
7 |
Ravens |
12 |
4 |
|
7 |
Titans |
11 |
5 |
|
8 |
Titans |
12 |
4 |
|
8 |
Ravens |
12 |
4 |
|
9 |
Bears |
13 |
3 |
|
9 |
Falcons |
13 |
3 |
|
10 |
Dolphins |
9 |
7 |
|
10 |
Saints |
11 |
5 |
|
11 |
Vikings |
10 |
6 |
|
11 |
Chargers |
11 |
5 |
|
12 |
Eagles |
11 |
5 |
|
12 |
Texans |
10 |
6 |
|
13 |
Packers |
10 |
6 |
|
13 |
Panthers |
8 |
8 |
|
14 |
Cardinals |
9 |
7 |
|
14 |
Bears |
11 |
5 |
|
15 |
Chargers |
10 |
6 |
|
15 |
Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Cowboys |
8 |
8 |
|
16 |
Bengals |
9 |
7 |
|
17 |
Jets |
8 |
8 |
|
17 |
Vikings |
8 |
8 |
|
18 |
Broncos |
7 |
9 |
|
18 |
Packers |
7 |
9 |
|
19 |
Texans |
8 |
8 |
|
19 |
Bills |
8 |
8 |
|
20 |
Saints |
6 |
10 |
|
20 |
Seahawks |
7 |
9 |
|
21 |
Redskins |
5 |
11 |
|
21 |
Jets |
5 |
11 |
|
22 |
Bills |
4 |
12 |
|
22 |
Bucs |
2 |
14 |
|
23 |
49ers |
6 |
10 |
|
23 |
Redskins |
5 |
11 |
|
24 |
Jaguars |
4 |
12 |
|
24 |
Jaguars |
5 |
11 |
|
25 |
Chiefs |
4 |
12 |
|
25 |
Broncos |
5 |
11 |
|
26 |
Bucs |
1 |
15 |
|
26 |
Dolphins |