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What's In the Preseason Preview
Each season PossessionPoints does a thorough team-by-team analysis of the upcoming season. We start with each team's offensive and defensive performance numbers from last year, we modify them for offseason moves and then play those performance numbers against this year's schedule.
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We generate our "expected case" but we also run numbers that would represent optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
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We look at what teams we think will make the playoffs and how far each team might go this season.
The Preseason Preview is available with
a free registration.
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How do Prior Seasons Projections Do?
If you missed the 2009 preseason preview, you missed the 166 of the 256 regular season games that we projected correctly. We also projected 6 teams'records exactly and 22 of the 32 teams within two games of their actual record. You will see many preseason picks from all different sources, but how many do you see report back on how they did? Below are the 22 teams we got to within 2 games of their actual performance.
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Team |
Preseason Prediction |
Actual Record |
| Eagles |
11 - 5 |
11 - 5 |
| Packers |
11 - 5 |
11 - 5 |
| Cardinals |
10 - 6 |
10 - 6 |
| 49ers |
8 - 8 |
8 - 8 |
| Browns |
5 - 11 |
5 - 11 |
| Bucs |
3 - 13 |
3 - 13 |
| Chargers |
12 - 4 |
13 - 3 |
| Saints |
12 - 4 |
13 - 3 |
| Vikings |
11 - 5 |
12 - 4 |
| Texans |
10 - 6 |
9 - 7 |
| Falcons |
8 - 8 |
9 - 7 |
| Titans |
9 - 7 |
8 - 8 |
| Jaguars |
8 - 8 |
7 - 9 |
| Raiders |
6 - 10 |
5 - 11 |
| Redskins |
3 - 13 |
4 - 12 |
| Chiefs |
3 - 13 |
4 - 12 |
| Lions |
3 - 13 |
2 - 14 |
| Jets |
7 - 9 |
9 - 7 |
| Panthers |
10 - 6 |
8 - 8 |
| Dolphins |
5 - 11 |
7 - 9 |
| Bills |
8 - 8 |
6 - 10 |
| Seahawks |
7 - 9 |
5 - 11 | |
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Even Our Misses Validate Our Method.
We say, "If you have a good PossessionPoints Team, you have a good football team." What we are saying is if a team does well in the PossessionPoints offensive and defensive stat, then it will win a lot of games. In our Preseason Preview, we take a team's offensive and defensive PossessionPoints and adjust them for offseason changes and make our projections for this season. Well,
in 2009 the Bengals were the team we missed by the most on, we projected 2-14 and they went 10-6. When we looked at their actual 2009 performance, their offense improved by 56% and their defense improved by 31%, so even our "optimistic" projection did not adjust by that much. So, we went back to last season's preseason data and put in the 56% and 31% adjustments and the computer came back with a 10-6 record.
Try PossessionPoints today, the info is fun and the stat really does identify winning teams. |
